REALLY Bad news for fracking

[excoriator]

I think it's undisputed that people are more opposed to fracking than they are to muslims, despite all the propaganda from clowns like you March.

Although it may be BECAUSE of it!

[aubrey]

Apr 8, 2015 16:47:20 GMT marchesarosa said:

Oh, no, it is far too much to expect a humbug like you, aubrey to actually read the responses to Question 9. All you have to do is scroll down to table 21/1


comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/BBC-Newsbeat_18-24-Year-Olds-Political-Survey_March-2015.pdf

It's their own survey; they can do what they like with it. Everyone does the same.

Was it wrong of them to miss out the reason why a lot of young people will not be voting?

For a party that claims to be democratic, the Tories seem to be doing an awful lot to stop people from voting. Why do you think that is? Why do you think the BBC are not making anything of it? (Or anyone else for that matter.) That should bother you, if they're really as concerned about forigs swanning over here to claim our amazingly generous benefits as you reckon.


note - scrolling down to table 21 or whatever it is - every page took an age to load, and had to be enlarged to see what was on it. Scrolling Pdfs takes a long time on my computer. I don't bother with them at all if I can help it.

[marchesarosa]

The Shale Boom Shifts Into Higher Gear

Date: 31/05/15 Donald L Luskin and Michael Warren

Oil production is becoming a modern manufacturing process, with frackers using the ‘just-in-time’ approach.

Have the American entrepreneurs who developed horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—“fracking”—done their jobs too well? The increase in domestic crude oil production of 3.6 million barrels a day in less than four years, reversing almost four decades of decline, has created a spectacular macroeconomic anomaly—a crash in oil prices without a recession to cause it.
Now, in response to sharply lower prices, domestic oil producers have shed jobs and cut operating rigs by more than half. This has sent shock waves through the entire U.S. economy. The drop in fixed assets for drilling, alone, slashed about half a percentage point off first quarter gross domestic product.

The crash in oil prices wasn’t due to lower demand. Petroleum demand in the U.S. is at its highest since 2010, and demand in China is higher than ever. Nor was the crash due to monopolistic OPEC manipulation. To be sure, the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, chose not to cut production to support falling prices. But looking at the fracking tidal wave in the U.S., OPEC was only following the old Chinese proverb: When faced with the inevitable, try to enjoy it.

Now the question is whether U.S. frackers can adapt to the lower prices they created. Fracking blossomed following the trough of the Great Recession, when oil prices were, on average and adjusted for inflation, the highest in history—even higher than in the 1970s. It was an ideal price environment for entrepreneurs to perform some very expensive experiments, ultimately learning how to drill holes two miles under a frozen prairie, turn the wellbore 90 degrees, drill out another mile or two, then hydraulically force a designer cocktail of water, sand and secret sauce down the hole to liberate petroleum molecules trapped since dinosaurs strode the earth.

The nimblest and smartest competitors have worked relentlessly to increase their productivity. Leading-edge operators report that they can produce more profitably today at a price of $65 a barrel than they could at $95 a barrel three years ago. Where can they be profitable three years hence—$40 a barrel? $30? The oil patch today is afire with the same technological imperative and competitive mission that has powered the U.S. electronics revolution—think Moore’s Law—to dash headlong down the learning curve, crushing costs and prices and making up for it in volume.

Today’s surge in production is coming predominantly from wells that are horizontally drilled and hydraulically fractured from drill pads with multiple wells. Because such wells exhaust quickly, many more of them must be drilled. The conventional wisdom is that fracking is therefore less amenable to the economies of scale exploited by traditional methods. But for today’s shale operators, that’s a feature, not a bug.

For one thing, the increase in the number of wells—which, necessarily, entails a great diversity of geologies and formations—means a commensurate increase in learning about a galaxy of processes that can be tweaked, combined and recombined to increase production and reduce costs. It’s simple: When you get more at-bats, you become a better batter.

Consider what frackers have had to learn to do. Today’s long laterals can extend up to 15,000 feet, running within undulating formations that can sprawl over hundreds of square miles. The ability to keep the drill bit in the middle of the formation has required improved 3-D seismic research and ever-increasing advances in telemetry and remote guidance, to locate and drain a productive area. It’s like learning to pilot a drone flying two miles underground, and through rock. It was difficult and expensive at first. Now it is known art.

Wells in light tight-oil formations can be drilled and completed for millions—not billions—of dollars, and the majority of the estimated recovery will occur within a year or two of bringing it on line. Capacity across a diversified portfolio of wells can be turned on when future prices justify it, and off when they don’t. That turns upside-down the traditional model of oil megaprojects that require billions in upfront capital, years of lead time, and always-on production irrespective of price.

All this means that, for the first time in history, oil production is becoming a modern manufacturing process. The frackers are engaged in “just-in-time” production, analogous to the methods pioneered by Japanese manufacturers in the 1970s and 1980s, which led directly to hyper-efficient global supply-chain management perfected by Wal-Mart in the 1990s.

And with today’s low prices, the frackers are having to adapt another lesson from Japanese manufacturing—kaizen (continuous improvement). That imperative for greater efficiency is transforming the ecosystem of firms that bring oil from shale formations to the gas tank—drillers, but also oil-service companies, railroads, pipelines and refiners.

So anyone who looks at the fall in the number of U.S. oil rigs and thinks that OPEC has won has a big surprise coming. If oil prices move up, even a little bit from here, U.S. frackers will finish hundreds of uncompleted wells, unleashing a new flood of supply. The cartel is no longer the swing producer.

Yes, additional cheap oil from OPEC could lower prices. But withholding that supply—or even a disruption to it arising from regional instability—can’t raise prices as it has in the past, because even slightly higher prices bring in waves of just-in-time production from U.S. frackers. The American fracker is the man at the margin now. And as his productivity continues to improve, that margin moves lower and lower.

Full story

www.wsj.com/articles/the-shale-boom-shifts-into-higher-gear-1433104129

[excoriator]

Well, you could look at this a slightly different way and say thousands of fracking wells have been abandoned. This is an undisputed fact. Whether they will spring into production at some future date is an unknown.

At any rate it seems an excellent reason for us NOT to pursue fracking here in the UK at this time.

[marchesarosa]

Farmers Sign Up To Support Drive For UK Shale Gas

Date: 13/06/15 Lancashire Evening Post

Shale gas supporters have set up an “agriculture panel” designed to show Fylde coast farmers how to work with the industry should it get the go-ahead.

The North West Energy Task force, a pressure group made up of businesses, has formed the new group, made up of four Lancashire farmers and GrowHow, a primary nitrogen fertiliser producer.

They will advise the Task Force on how the development of shale gas will impact UK food security and the agricultural sector.

Farmers James Harrison, John Loftus, Timothy Laycock, and Jack Wright form the panel.

Jack, who lives close to a shale gas operations site, said: “I have a borehole where I get the water from for watering my farm. The Environment Agency tests it every six months. Cuadrilla Resources have been operating in the area and the water hasn’t altered one iota.”

Anti-fracking campaigners maintian that most farmers are against fracking because of the potential threat through pollution of land, water and air and the impact on rural life.

Debbie Baker, a spokesperson from GrowHow, who is advising the panel, said: “Natural gas is the primary ingredient within fertiliser. A new source of gas within the UK, helps to diversify supply and potentially stabilise costs. “

Full post www.lep.co.uk/news/business/business/farmers-sign-up-to-support-drive-for-shale-gas-in-county-1-7307180

BBC: The Lancashire farmers who welcome fracking www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-33084917

[marchesarosa]

Fracking Could Get Green Light In Lancashire

Date: 13/06/15 Emily Gosden, The Daily Telegraph

Fracking could get the green light from planning officials on Monday in North West county that is at the forefront of Government’s hopes for British shale revolution.

Energy company Cuadrilla, which caused the tremors near Blackpool in 2011, is awaiting the verdict from Lancashire council officials on proposals to frack at two sites in the county – at the forefront of the Government’s hopes for a British shale gas boom.

The company suffered a major setback in January when officials unexpectedly recommended the council throw out its proposals, citing concerns over noise and traffic.

But Francis Egan, Cuadrilla chief executive, said he was now “quietly confident” of securing their recommendation for at least one of the sites, after committing to spend an extra $3 million (£2 million) on measures to further mask the noise of drilling.

A positive recommendation from officials on Monday would set the stage for a showdown with protesters the week after, when councillors are due to vote on the plans.

Despite the Prime Minister and Chancellor’s enthusiastic backing for shale gas, not a single well has been fracked since the ban was lifted in 2012.

Speaking to the Telegraph, Mr Egan urged Amber Rudd, the new energy secretary, to “demonstrate there is a commitment to explore for this and trying to make it work” by pressing ahead with awarding new exploration rights to shale gas companies.

Companies were offered the chance to apply for access to vast new swathes of the UK last year in the “14th licensing round”.

The winners have still not been announced, but in January ministers gave in to Labour and backbench opposition and agreed that fracking would be banned in certain “protected areas” such as national parks – rendering some of the land companies had applied to explore off-limits.

Secondary legislation is required to set out exactly which areas are covered by the ban.

Mr Egan said: “I think the industry is waiting to see the 14th round move forward and secondary legislation is the critical enabler for that to happen.

“There are a number of new players, not least [petrochemicals company] Ineos, who have pledged to invest considerable sums of money. There are people waiting to move the thing forward – they won’t wait forever.

“If it’s evident the time taken to do this is so protracted that there’s a question mark about when you’re going to get a return out of it, you look elsewhere.”

more...

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/fracking/11670264/Cuadrilla-could-get-green-light-for-fracking-in-Lancashire.html

[marchesarosa]

Trade Union Hails Shale, May Save Grangemouth

Date: 13/06/15 The Falkirk Herald

A major union has given Ineos its blessing to move ahead with its ambitious plans for shale gas. GMB national secretary Gary Smith said: “Having access to gas is a matter of national security. The truth is we are going to be using gas, including shale gas, for a long time to come.”

The GMB this week announced a joint charter on shale gas with United Kingdom Onshore Oil and Gas, the representative body for the UK onshore oil and gas industry.


GMB national secretary Gary Smith said: “Having access to gas is a matter of national security. The truth is we are going to be using gas, including shale gas, for a long time to come.

“We have a long record in ensuring we have the highest standards of health and safety and skills in the UK gas industry.

“If the shale gas industry does take off we will bring all that experience to bear, to ensure the industry operates at the very highest standards in terms of the environment and health and safety.

“Integral to this is having a highly skilled workforce and we will work with the industry to make sure we have levels of skills that are absolutely second to none.”

Ineos, currently constructing a massive ethane tank to store US shale gas at its Grangemouth site, welcomed the GMB’s announcement.

Gary Haywood, CEO of Ineos Shale, said: “The GMB has always been forward looking in this area and understands the importance of a UK shale gas industry for UK jobs and UK manufacturing.

Full story www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/business/business-news/grangemouth-s-ineos-delighted-as-union-hail-shale-1-3799489

[excoriator]

This government is always ready to listen to the opinion of unions!

[marchesarosa]

thousands of fracking wells have been abandoned. This is an undisputed fact. Whether they will spring into production at some future date is an unknown.

Sure. The most expensive wells have been mothballed as the fall in the oil price made them temporarily uneconomic. When the oil price rises again they will be taken out of retirement.

You DO understand the price mechanism, don't you, exco? Ask your WEA tutor.

You don't expect the oil price to remain permanently at the current level, do you? What a gull.

[excoriator]

Well, the fact remains that wells have been mothballed. Hardly a sign of a thriving industry! If you wish to assume they will be taken out of retirement one day, then by all means do so. I think it is a lot less certain than you appear to believe however.

You may be right about oil going up in the future. Who knows, but if renewables continue to grow at the rate they appear to doing now, then even this is doubtful. It is one thing to restrict supply and drive up the price when it is a seller's market. Quite another when people all over the world are beavering away developing cheap clean alternatives. If the price DOES go up again as you hope, then it will give additional impetus to the development of renewable alternatives.

[marchesarosa]

Fracking Could Secure Energy Supply Without Significant Risks, Says Royal Society

Date: 17/06/15 Mike Wade, The Times

Fracking offers Scotland the chance of a secure energy supply no more harmful to the environment than conventional gas production, according to a study published by the country’s pre-eminent scientific academy.

The Royal Society of Edinburgh’s advice paper on “options for Scotland’s gas future” finds that “onshore production of unconventional gas” — or fracking — could offer the country security of supply without “significant risk” to health, wellbeing or safety.

Published this morning, the report stops short of recommending fracking, but calls for an informed debate.

Its findings suggest that a strong case can be made for fracking, with developments likely in parts of the central belt, including Clackmannanshire and Stirlingshire, should consent be granted.

The report states: “Onshore production of unconventional gas would allow Scotland control over all regulation surrounding extraction and production. The impact of unconventional gas production on the environment is considered to be comparable to conventional gas.

“The areas of health, wellbeing and safety surrounding an onshore industry do not appear to present significant risks. Domestic production onshore could improve energy security, create jobs and ensure Scotland takes responsibility for its energy consumption.”

Rebecca Lunn, the lead author of the report, warned that debate should not focus too narrowly on fracking, but added: “There are no easy solutions when it comes to supplying our energy needs; local impacts must be weighed up against issues of energy security, carbon emissions and social justice.”

In January, Fergus Ewing, the energy minister, announced a moratorium on fracking consents, pending a public inquiry. The sincerity of the government’s stance was soon questioned by anti-fracking lobbyists when it emerged that Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, had met with Jim Ratcliffe, the owner of Ineos, the petrochemical giant. Ineos has licences for shale gas exploration across 700 square miles of Scotland and wants to invest £640 million in the technology.
....

Well, at last the powers that be are showing some sense.

[excoriator]

I think the general population has long concluded that renewables plus storage involves NO risk. This is rather better than no 'significant risk'.

[marchesarosa]

The Independent: Two Cheers For Fracking With proper regulation shale gas will be a boon to the UK

Date: 25/06/15 Editorial, The Independent

Editorial: Fracking extracts gas by opening up fissures in shale rock. It also opens up a great many cans of worms. Wednesday’s chaotic deferral by Lancashire County Council of its decision on whether to permit the energy firm Cuadrilla to open a new UK fracking operation at Little Plumpton shows the complexity of the debate.

Opponents continue to press concerns about the potential environmental pitfalls, citing evidence of increased earth tremors at US fracking sites, as well as raising the possibility of water contamination. None of those anxieties ought to be taken lightly, which is why strict regulation of any future fracking fields is vital.

Critical voices also note that the recent low price of oil poses questions about the economics of extracting gas from shale, where profit margins are far tighter. The US fracking boom has cooled appreciably in the past six months as investors take fright.

Nevertheless, the global price of oil will not stay at rock bottom for ever. And Britain, still overly reliant on burning coal for its energy, must keep its options open, especially at a time when geopolitical stability precludes long-term reliance on foreign imports.

Fracking, for all that it requires close monitoring, should not be off limits indefinitely. Not only does it produce, in natural gas, a preferable alternative to coal, but new operations will create much-needed employment. The Prime Minister has previously argued that tapping shale for gas could bring up to 74,000 jobs and £3bn of investment. That may be optimistic, but it gives an indication of what is at stake.

Even so, no solution that relies on fossil fuels alone is a long-term answer to our energy needs, let alone global environmental pressures. So while Cuadrilla may succeed at Little Plumpton, the Government must continue to support research into renewable alternatives.

The Independent, 25 June 2015
www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/two-cheers-for-fracking-with-proper-regulation-shale-gas-will-be-a-boon-to-the-uk-10343551.html

[jean]

Jun 25, 2015 7:42:45 GMT marchesarosa said:

No solution that relies on fossil fuels alone is a long-term answer to our energy needs, let alone global environmental pressures. So...the Government must continue to support research into renewable alternatives.

[marchesarosa]

That's merely a POLITICAL opinion based on bad science and unsubstantiated projections FAR into the future, jean!


Meanwhile here are some folks who definitely DON'T share that opinion





Argentina & China Lead Worldwide Hunt For Shale Gas, EIA Says

Date: 27/06/15 Houston Chronicle

Argentina and China are at the head of a worldwide hunt for shale gas, drilling nearly 500 wells in the past two years, seeking the fuel that kicked off the U.S. energy boom.

Outside of North America, they’re the only two nations that are producing commercial quantities of natural gas trapped in deep-seated shale formations, and they both have the capacity to grow their output substantially, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report Friday.

Oil companies have also bored holes in into deep-seated shale rock in Poland, Algeria, Australia, Columbia and Russia, but so far none of those countries have been able to reach commercial production levels.

Disparate rock formations and tight mineral rights laws are two reasons U.S. oil companies say there hasn’t been more shale energy exploration overseas. But producers in Argentina and China have found vast regions packed with shale gas.

Argentina’s Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales, or YPF, has paired up with Chevron, Dow Chemical and Malaysian oil company Petronas to pump a daily 22,900 barrels of oil and 67 million cubic square feet of gas in various fields within the Vaca Muerta shale region on the western side of the country, the EIA said.

YFP is also partnering with China’s state-owned oil company Sinopec and Russia’s Gazprom to extract shale gas in the Vaca Muerta, which means “dead cow.” YFP and others have drilled 275 wells in search of shale gas and tight oil in the last two years.

In China, Sinopec and state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. have drilled deep into a shale play in the southern region of the country, the Sichuan Basin, and are on track to produce 600 million cubic feet of gas a day by the end of the year, the EIA said, citing China’s Ministry of Land and Resources. Producers have drilled 200 wells in China in the last two years.

fuelfix.com/blog/2015/06/26/argentina-china-ripe-for-more-shale-development-eia-says/#30267101=0