Good News and Bad News

[purple joggers]

pinkgoyle said:

But it's not just the amount of crime is it PJ? It's the type of crime.

Are people more likely to walk around at night in an area that has 100 burglaries a night but no muggings or one that has 10 muggings a night but no burglaries?

Your assertion that muggings are what happens in the inner cities and burglaries are what happens in the suburbs is wrong; most muggings are in the lower middle class/working class suburbs, as are most crimes involving normal law-abiding citizens (as opposed to crimes between citizens who already don’t frequently follow the law, i.e. in-fighting between criminals).

Not mugging, but pick-pocketing in its widest sense (so including stealing a woman’s handbag casually slung over the back of a chair in a restaurant or pub) is the crime which normal law-abiding people are most likely to suffer in the inner city, and that more likely by day than in the evening or at night. Almost all other crimes which normal law-abiding people are likely to experience occur just as frequently or even more frequently in the suburbs.

Less than half of all burglaries are of houses (most burglaries are of small businesses overnight). And when house burglaries do happen, they occur primarily in suburbs in the afternoon when residents are out at work or shopping or away on holiday, not at night.

So Sandy is wrong to suggest people in suburbs should not go for walks at night for fear of burglary. People who are really concerned about burglary should skip work, call the pizza delivery man and not go on day trips to Skeggy.

[purple joggers]

pinkgoyle said:

But it's not just the amount of crime is it PJ? It's the type of crime.

Are people more likely to walk around at night in an area that has 100 burglaries a night but no muggings or one that has 10 muggings a night but no burglaries?

Although you are right that most people worry about being and injured mugged (followed by worrying about car theft, then burglary), this order of worry doesn’t match with the likelihood of its occurrence. Statistically the chances that you will be mugged are far less than the chances you will be victim of many another crime.

You are most likely to have something you own (e.g. car) vandalised or your car (or something from it) stolen, both as frequent in the suburbs as in the inner cities.
About half as likely are the chances of you suffering violence from people you know (family/friends) or with whom you are involved in some way (e.g. football fans of opposing team, rival co-drinkers outside the pub/disco, girlfriend’s ex-husband, neighbour with whom you’ve had a disagreement), and which could happen anywhere, but mostly in the suburbs.
Equally likely are the chances of having a burglary, though this more likely in the premises of the small business you run.

The chance you will be mugged is only about an eighth of the chance your car will be stolen or vandalised, and only a quarter the likelihood someone from QQR will attack you after an evening's drinking and hot discussion in The Quiet Night Inn, or that burglars will break in your house while you’re down at The Quiet Night Inn calmly discussing the crime content in tv news programmes.
And the chances that you will be injured when being mugged (so more than a bruise when knocked over) are only about 1 in 16 the chance your car will be vandalised, stolen, etc, etc.

I understand to be on the receiving end of violent mugging is far more frightening than coming home and finding no television in the house - you might even rejoice if that happened. And I'm sure we can all claim the statistics are wrong because cousin Bill, Auntie Peggy and friend Tim have all been mugged but none had their car stolen. But the crime statistics do not bear out what people fear most.

[Daz Madrigal]

In the case of old people its not a case of living in fear but being safe rather than sorry. Sure you can open the door to anyone who calls and let them in but I know more than a few older people who have been left feeling not only sorry but considerably poorer as a result.

[artful dodger]

minty said:

pinkgoyle said:

But it's not just the amount of crime is it PJ? It's the type of crime.

Are people more likely to walk around at night in an area that has 100 burglaries a night but no muggings or one that has 10 muggings a night but no burglaries?

Your assertion that muggings are what happens in the inner cities and burglaries are what happens in the suburbs is wrong; most muggings are in the lower middle class/working class suburbs, as are most crimes involving normal law-abiding citizens (as opposed to crimes between citizens who already don’t frequently follow the law, i.e. in-fighting between criminals).

Not mugging, but pick-pocketing in its widest sense (so including stealing a woman’s handbag casually slung over the back of a chair in a restaurant or pub) is the crime which normal law-abiding people are most likely to suffer in the inner city, and that more likely by day than in the evening or at night. Almost all other crimes which normal law-abiding people are likely to experience occur just as frequently or even more frequently in the suburbs.

Less than half of all burglaries are of houses (most burglaries are of small businesses overnight). And when house burglaries do happen, they occur primarily in suburbs in the afternoon when residents are out at work or shopping or away on holiday, not at night.

So Sandy is wrong to suggest people in suburbs should not go for walks at night for fear of burglary. People who are really concerned about burglary should skip work, call the pizza delivery man and not go on day trips to Skeggy.

You're more likely to get your pocket picked in a crowd. I think we know this.

[treelady]

artful said:

You're more likely to get your pocket picked in a crowd. I think we know this.

do I know you from another site?

boom?

o.0

[Daz Madrigal]

Don't bother with that Salfordian tealeaf, T.L.

[Daz Madrigal]

Is it Pj's birthday?

Not according to our excellent up to date er..data!