Just a hunch.

[jonjel]

Dec 8, 2020 17:00:42 GMT aubrey said:

Another promise from Johnson's lot:

The remainers lost. Nothing like a bad loser. You are getting as bad as Trump. Let it go and maybe we can all pull together to make it work. I wont be around, but in 20 years time people will wonder what the hell he fuss was al about because the United States of Europe will be history.

[skylark]

Dec 8, 2020 14:13:08 GMT jonjel said:

I think as a sovereign independent county we can make our own rules Larkers. But lets see how it all pans out. I feel pretty relaxed about it myself. Partly because if we cant get x from for example Germany, then we can get it elsewhere in the world. Things are so different from even 30 years ago.

Well no, we are bound by WTO rules. We can decide not to impose tariffs but if we do we have to do so for the whole world.

For that reason the EU can’t give special concessions to us, so all your exports to the EU will be subject to tariffs, which means your customers will pay more.

As a rotten sleeper I follow Farming Today, and that is a worry to farmers. Johnson is talking about not imposing tariffs on some imported goods including food, and that will add insult to injury. And the CBI, which like the NFU campaigned hard to remain in the EU, seems to be tearing its hair out at the prospect of no deal.

[excoriator]

The point is, Jonjel, we've ALL lost. Leavers and remainers.

[skylark]

I wonder how many Leave voters do feel betrayed. The few I have spoken to seem to take the view that the EU is punishing us for going and that No Deal will hurt them more than us. I am sure neither is true; a deal will benefit both, and my suspicion is that it will hurt our businesses more than it will hurt those in the EU. The chap from the CBI speaking on Today just now certainly thinks some UK sectors will be hit hard; something we were told right from the start and the main reason I voted remain.
I refuse to believe that the CBI is 'scaremongering', the term applied by devout Brexiters to dismiss any warnings of a poor outcome for Britain if we left.

[excoriator]

Indeed yes skylark. The inevitable results of leaving the union are all being blamed on the EU.

The real culprits for this disaster are those clowns who voted to leave.

I see now that if you go to the EU you will need a green card for your insurance, and will have to pay for your health insurance and you can image the cost and the exclusions hiddeen away in the small print in coded legalese. The Erasmus scheme allowing UK students to study abroad will come to an end, we won't have access to the Galileo system which means big problems for military probes and cruise missiles, we lose out on numerous pan-european projects and food will become more expensive.

Thanks for all that, Jonjell and his fellow brexit zealots.

[jonjel]

As one of the 17.4 million clowns (ahem, the majority) maybe someone should point out to the people of Europe.


It works both ways.

[skylark]

I am slightly puzzled that the EU does care so much about this deal. After all, if a country can't sell to or buy from us, they have 26 other countries to do business with instead. It may take a bit of time, but I think we will find we are dispensible.

[excoriator]

I think a lot of it is that they are aware that the majority of Brits no longer want to be independent and regret having left.

They are also clearly aware that the UK is in the hands of a rather unpleasantly right wing clique of people with a slavish press providing all the propaganda they can to support them.

They seem a lot more principled than our government.

[aubrey]

Now it's a great outcome. The bastards want shooting.

[aubrey]

A Twitter thread about the negotiations:

THREAD. Just finished Friday zoom with my Brussels group. Much to report.

First, a framing point: The summit went all day and all night. All was agreed: budget, environmental goals, Covid19 response. Brexit was discussed for ten minutes. All agreed the mandate is unchanged. 1/
Everyone at the Commission is quite confused. The current offer to the UK is a deal in which IF we align, we get full access. IF, in future, we diverge they limit access or put up (some) tariffs. The UK choosing to go to NO access and FULL tariffs NOW, is incomprehensible. 2/

This has led people to split into two camps: There is one school of thought, that Johnson really is utterly clueless. His behaviour at the UVDL dinner last night (a car crash, apparently), has fed that impression. This makes people not want to do business with this government. 3/

The second school of thought, is that Johnson negotiated in bad faith throughout. That his aim was always No Deal and he simply strung 27 countries along, at the expense of a huge amount of work, effort and expense. This makes them not want to do business with this government. 4/

Note that the conclusion is precisely the same under either theory. That whether idiot or fraudster, Johnson is best kept at arms length. Polling in most EU27 shows that being tough with the UK yields a big favourability boost. So, I'm afraid, nobody is riding to our rescue. 5/

There is also a lot of weird back-channel chat that he might ask for some sort of technical extension at the 11th hour. Nobody puts much stock in it, but they are prepared and have worked up various legal mechanisms, if that happens. 6/
Those involved with negotiations describe two basic category errors. 1. The UK seems to think that the damage of a No Deal to each party is Trade Amount A vs Trade Amount B. It seems oblivious that the UK is not only losing trade but the entire framework under which it trades. 7/

There was not a single person who thought the UK is even semi-prepared. Most think it doesn't even have a clear idea of what is coming. Several cited the fact that the IT system, meant to accommodate border forms in THREE WEEKS, has not even gone live to be Beta-tested yet. 8/

2. The second category error is the UK's belief that Single Market integrity is somehow negotiable. That it's a haggle, during which if the UK says "oh, go on" enough, the EU will eventually reply "oh, alright then". They have run out of ways to explain this cannot happen. 9/

For four years the Commission tried to explain that nothing - no amount of cajoling, sweeteners, or goodwill (of which there is very little) - nothing, can ever produce a deal that can be seen to be better for the UK than it is for members. THIS IS BARNIER'S MANDATE. 10/

And for four years, this is precisely what the UK has demanded. The prize, without buying a ticket. It won't happen. Full and free access to the market is the central offering; the essence of membership. They're not about to start giving it away to third parties. Ever. 11/END

And now we're sending in the gunboats. We are not a serious country any more.

[aubrey]

Broken glass for the Germans, gunboats for the French.

He's got this diplomacy business down pat, hasn't he?

[aubrey]

[excoriator]

What I find so depressing about this is its plausibility. It is almost as bad as the fact of what brexit has done to our nation and what is to come.

[aubrey]

Another promise:

[excoriator]

I think WTO rules will prove a lot more restrictive than the EU's, but we'll see.