Just a hunch.

[excoriator]

I saw Ursula von der Leyen giving a statement about the resumption of brexit trade arrangement which will take place in Brussels yesterday.

I got the strong impression from her body language that the EU had had enough and had decided to terminate the talks and had relented with some reluctance after pleas from Boris. The fact that the new talks will take place in Brussels not London may support this, but I don't know enough about diplomatic protocols to be sure of this. Basically, you want something from someone, you go to them, rather than the reverse but perhaps that's too simple.

Depressing but I think that unless Boris climbs down the game is over and its no deal.

[skylark]

According to Boris, No Deal is no problem.

If he is satisfied, so must we all be.

But don't businesses have enough to worry about without not knowing whether, on they will be operating under WTO rules or something else on January 1st? I suppose JJ might answer that, but I know what the CBI is saying. The writing is on the wall.

[aubrey]

This German Green MP cares more about the future of the UK than the Tories do:

Theresa Reintke

[excoriator]

As they say in South Wales "Lovely Talking!"

[jonjel]

Dec 6, 2020 7:01:12 GMT skylark said:

According to Boris, No Deal is no problem.

If he is satisfied, so must we all be.

But don't businesses have enough to worry about without not knowing whether, on they will be operating under WTO rules or something else on January 1st? I suppose JJ might answer that, but I know what the CBI is saying. The writing is on the wall.

Well we trade all over the world and do a lot in Europe. And despite the brinkmanship the enquiries and order are still coming in. We have been doing this for many years and I think the mongers of doom are being just that.

Yes there is more paperwork if we sell something to a non EU country, but it takes a few moments, and in fact the carriers do the bulk of it. We have had issues with customs declaration forms from the US, but this is largely because despite a shared language they do not seem to have a shared vocabulary and often invent words or phrases. On a few occasions we have told them we are not prepared to fill in a 30 page document for a £1500 order, and they usually modify their requests.

As for 'trade deals' I think these are largely a question of 'we will buy your wheat if you agree to buy our beef' or whatever. The trade deals we do are 'here is a bit of kit. The price is £x, excluding foreign bank charges taxes or shipping and payment will be in pounds sterling' The customer then decides if he wants it or not.

[excoriator]

As a remainer, I have to say a no-deal departure makes more sense than staying in the EU's free trade area, as we would have no say in it.

We would undoubtedly be better off, economically being in it, but a brexit where you remain in the EU economically but have no say in it makes no sense whatsoever. Rather than gaining sovereignty, it is throwing it away.

I suspect that the EU, if no deal can be agreed, will continue to play it by the book and will be in no hurry to start negotiations with the UK for many months if not years. I think they want to ley the UK experience the consequences of what they've done to themselves before returning to the table for talks.

[jonjel]

Dec 7, 2020 16:05:50 GMT excoriator said:

As a remainer, I have to say a no-deal departure makes more sense than staying in the EU's free trade area, as we would have no say in it.

We would undoubtedly be better off, economically being in it, but a brexit where you remain in the EU economically but have no say in it makes no sense whatsoever. Rather than gaining sovereignty, it is throwing it away.

I suspect that the EU, if no deal can be agreed, will continue to play it by the book and will be in no hurry to start negotiations with the UK for many months if not years. I think they want to ley the UK experience the consequences of what they've done to themselves before returning to the table for talks.

I am sure you thought long and hard before you voted Exco, as I did and we reached different conclusions. If the EU want to play games then two can Tango. And I do hope they will have equally big lorry parks in France as are being constructed in Kent.

Although it is only a tiny sample I do know that my Italian friends are very very unhappy members and will not take kindly to the big two, France and Germany waving big sticks. When they were last over here they even discussed with me very seriously as to how difficult it would be to set up a satellite factory in England.

As for fish, a tiny proportion of the trade, but it is symbolic.

[skylark]

JJ, in your post you mention nothing about tariffs. it is of course quite possible that in your industry the WTO rules don't make much difference, but they will to many others. Our lamb, for example, will be subject to 40% and sheep farmers are predicting going out of business. If EU countries can buy the same thing from another EU country tariff free why on earth would they want to buy from us?

[aubrey]

Now it turns out that this wasn't a deal after all:

[excoriator]

I note JJ's following the standard brexit tactic of trying to blame the EU for 'playing tricks'

There is of course no evidence for this. They have rules for countries that leave, and they are well known to the UK as the UK signed up to them as member. They have merely stuck to them, that's all. If Boris and Farage and the rest of them went into this assuming that rules would be bent in their favour, then they are fools.

The problem is, I think, that the brexit side expected to get specials treatment and it has not been forthcoming. Nor will it be. There is no advantage to the 27 in giving us anything. We are no longer members so why on earth shold they? This refusal to give us all the benefits we enjoyed as members seems to have come as a shock to them, and they have described this as 'demands' or 'tricks' and so on.

It is nothing of the sort.

[jonjel]

No one knows if tariffs will be imposed. I rather hope not because I quite like French wine, and cheese. Is there really any point in either side crippling the other for the sake of it?

Other markets will be found if the EU imposes high tariffs. A long time ago but I seem to remember that when we joined there was a problem with Butter from New Zealand. But I think NZ production pretty soon recovered and the only result was that their butter cost more here than previously.

[aubrey]

[skylark]

Dec 8, 2020 9:55:22 GMT jonjel said:

No one knows if tariffs will be imposed. I rather hope not because I quite like French wine, and cheese. Is there really any point in either side crippling the other for the sake of it?

Other markets will be found if the EU imposes high tariffs. A long time ago but I seem to remember that when we joined there was a problem with Butter from New Zealand. But I think NZ production pretty soon recovered and the only result was that their butter cost more here than previously.

I did not think we had a choice because in having no deal we reverted to WTO rules, but I may be wrong about imports. Certainly we will have no choice about export tariffs, will we?

[jonjel]

I think as a sovereign independent county we can make our own rules Larkers. But lets see how it all pans out. I feel pretty relaxed about it myself. Partly because if we cant get x from for example Germany, then we can get it elsewhere in the world. Things are so different from even 30 years ago.

[aubrey]

Another promise from Johnson's lot: